The JFK Aerotropolis?

On Oct. 28 – the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy making landfall – ten teams of architects, engineers, environmentalists and assorted experts unveiled 41 proposals at the behest of HUD for how to rebuild and buttress the Northeast coast ahead of the next superstorm (which is likely to be a biannual event from now on, at least). One of “Rebuild by Design’s” teams is led by OMA, Rem Koolhaas’ Office for Metropolitan Architecture. Their proposal includes a “Jamaica Bay Aerotropolis” as a means of stablizing and reinforcing the delicate wetlands around Jamaica Bay. From their description:

JFK International Airport is a vital node in the regions infrastructure. As part of Jamaica Bay, it is also highly vulnerable to flood risk. Although the airport is capable of ‘taking care if its own problems’, there is an opportunity to leverage this asset to promote the common flood defense of the Jamaica Bay area. That means integrating the airport into a larger tiered defense system, and using the airport as a catalyst for growth; growth that will help fuel, and fund, the transformation of the area, and position Jamaica Bay as a future economic for New York City.

In other words: we must build a new city in order to save it.

OMA’s championing of an aerotropolis isn’t entirely unexpected. The firm is currently designing an “Airport City” in Doha in conjunction with that city’s new airport, while the word “aerotropolis” first appeared in print in English (as far as I can tell) in the Koolhaas-led Harvard GSD volume “Great Leap Forward.” In 1998, Koolhaas proposed replacing Amsterdam’s Schiphol with an offshore aerotropolis, and before that, his firm had crafted (later discarded) master plans for both New Seoul Airport City and what would become New Songdo. Koolhaas arguably has a better claim to parentage of the aerotropolis than its chief evangelist, Jack Kasarda.

Meanwhile, The Economist has finally gotten around to reading Chapter 2 of my book:

Memphis calls itself America’s “aerotropolis,” referring to the title of a 2011 book by John Kasarda and Greg Lindsay. The book argues that cities of the future, and their economies, will increasingly be built around airports.

Memphis has a downtown, of course, but just its air-cargo operations produced a total economic output in its past financial year of roughly $22.1 billion and supported over 132,000 jobs. Louisville, Kentucky–home to the hub of FedEx’s chief rival, UPS–has a similar story. In 2011 its two airports were responsible, directly or indirectly, for roughly 9% of all jobs in the Louisville area. Cotton built Memphis, and rail and river cargo made Louisville, but those trades dwindled and both cities languished until FedEx and UPS found them.

The carriers have in turn attracted companies that profit from being near a direct-mail hub. Some are retailers: Zappos, an online shoes and clothes store, has a huge distribution centre just outside Louisville. CaféPress, another online seller which lets customers design their own T-shirts, mugs and other products, moved its headquarters from San Mateo, California, to Louisville, netting it millions from cost savings and later cut-off times for orders. Louisville’s airport authority claims that since 1993 more than 150 firms have moved to Louisville to be near the UPS hub.

Others are health-care outfits, such as the National Eye Bank Centre, based near Memphis, which stores corneas for ocular surgery. Last year Oxford Immunotec, a medical-diagnostics firm which tests patients for tuberculosis, moved its laboratory to Memphis from Boston. Now it can guarantee that blood samples from almost anywhere in America can get from patient to lab within 32 hours.

Could the idea of a successful aerotropolis be replicated elsewhere? Only in part. Both cities have immense advantages. They are temperate and central. Both have river ports, freight-rail lines and interstate highways to connect the airports to surface transport. Both also have relatively low labour costs, and fairly cheap land.

UPS and FedEx are bright spots in an otherwise dim market. Since 2010 worldwide air-cargo volumes have grown by just over 2%, from 50.7m tonnes to a forecast 51.8m this year. And revenue is shrinking, from $66 billion in 2010 to an expected $59 billion this year. But robust e-commerce, the growth of demand for cheap package delivery and such specialist freight as refrigerated medicines have helped the two firms buck the trend. UPS said on October 25th that it expects its daily volume of packets in the pre-Christmas peak season to be up 8% on last year.

As for Messrs Kasarda and Lindsay’s aerotropolis, like many futurist reimaginings, its appeal is more romantic than predictive. But there is plenty of evidence for a simpler version of this thesis: that airports encourage growth and development, even if that won’t sell books.

If they’d published this two-and-a-half years ago, when the book was published, it might have helped.